The lipstick index holds true. New market forecasts from Mintel predict cosmetic sales in the US will rise as a result of the recession. Moreover, Mintel anticipates a higher growth rate for make-up now than it did just eight months ago (10% over the next five years versus 7%).Mintel’s re-forecasting of previously published research reports has uncovered which beauty and personal care markets are recession-proof and which ones are being stimulated by the poor economy. Though the beauty and personal care sector is struggling overall, Mintel sees some very bright spots, including color cosmetics.Joan Holleran, Director of Research at Mintel, notes that “many women have a deep emotional tie to their appearance, so cosmetics are a non-negotiable. These women may trade down on other purchases or forgo expensive vacations, but they will still treat themselves to small, feel-good luxuries like make-up and beauty products. “Joan Holleran points to another segment that is expected to fare the recession well: anti-aging beauty. Mintel expects sales of anti-aging skincare products to increase 20% over the next five years. One year ago, Mintel forecast 44% five-year growth, but the adjusted market forecast is significant given the current economic climate.Mintel also predicts healthy growth for suncare products, with sales expected to increase 36% from 2008 to 2013. This is a slight decline from Mintel’s original market forecast of 41% growth, but it still shows people continuing to follow dermatologists’ advice to use sunscreen daily.Though the cosmetic, anti-aging and suncare markets should hold strong throughout the recession, other beauty and personal care markets may not. “Shoppers are trading down to save money on purchases they don’t deem necessary. So everything beyond deodorant, shampoo and razors is at risk,”states Joan Holleran. “Personal care companies need to focus on value, feel-good benefits and new product innovation to keep shoppers interested. “Mintel Re-forecasts Oxygen Reports for Better Market PredictionsMarket research leader Mintel has re-forecasted all of its Oxygen reports from 2007 and 2008 due to the unprecedented economic changes of the past year. Never done before, Mintel decided to re-forecast these market size predictions so its consumer, market and trend reports would more accurately reflect market expectations in the next five years.Each re-forecasted Mintel Oxygen report maintains its original market size predictions, so readers can see the recession’s true impact on their market.

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