Mintel and The Economist Intelligence Unit collaborate to forecast global FMCG trends

January 15, 2013

‘- New whitepaper forecasts the changing household spending patterns in five emerging markets against the UK and USA
– Consumer spending in these emerging markets expected to grow between 7.7% and 15.2% a year between 2013-2016
– China expected to see strongest growth but paper illustrates unique trends within each market

For the first time, economic forecaster The Economist Intelligence Unit has teamed up with Mintel, the consumer market experts to predict key trends for the future of different Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) categories in emerging markets.

Launched today, the findings are revealed in the paper, ‘Convergence with Divergence’, which analyses how household spending in China, India, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa will change in comparison to the USA and UK over the next three years. Providing an in-depth picture of micro and macro trends, the report reveals Consumer spending in these emerging markets expected to grow between 7.7% and 15.2% a year between 2013 and 2016.

While the world’s developed economies are still dealing with the fallout from the banking crisis of 2008, many emerging markets have seen incomes rise significantly, providing significant growth opportunities for FMCG businesses looking to enter new markets. Each market continues to differ and a need for businesses to understand their market remains integral.
Peter Ayton, Global Consumer Analyst at Mintel said,””Our whitepaper reveals the rapidly changing behaviour of consumers globally in some of the world’s most exciting emerging markets – and sharply contrasts them with the more mature markets of the US and UK. While the five emerging markets we profiled are expected to see total spending rise by between 7.7% and 15.2% a year on average in 2013-2016 (Mexico will be the slowest and China the fastest), US spending growth will average 4.5% a year and the UK’s just 3.6%. The collaboration with the EIU allowed us to combine both the micro and macro-economic trends to provide scenario-based accurate predictions for businesses looking to explore new and emerging markets for their products.””

The FMCG segments forecast to be the fastest growing in each country are:
– Prepared food in China by nearly 21% annually 2013-16
– Beverages in Mexico by 16.9% annually 2013-16
– Household products in India and South Africa by almost 21% and 12% respectively annually 2013-16
– Beauty products in Turkey by close to 20% annually 2013-16
– Beauty and Food service in the US by over 5% annually 2013-16
– Non-alcoholic drinks in the UK by some 4% annually 2013-16

“”Understanding how emerging markets will develop over the coming years is essential for FMCG companies planning expansion activities. Our collaboration with Mintel shows that underlying priorities have significant effects on purchases made. For example in India where malnutrition is still an issue, parents are likely to buy vitamin enhanced juices, whereas in the USA with obesity high on the agenda, parents are much more likely to purchase flavoured waters. Understanding these nuances is key””, said Jon Copestake, Retail and Consumer Goods Analyst, at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

In summary, key findings for each of the markets is as follows:

– China is likely to see a growth in laundry detergents due to growth in washing machines (grown from 1% of rural households in 2000 to 16% in 2010)
– India’s prepared food market has more than doubled with cereal consumption increasing. Household products are expected to grow by over 20% a year in the forecast period
– In Mexico the pet food market is booming – with sales doubling in the last five years
– South Africans are acquiring more expensive tastes in drinks and coffee is expected to see an annual growth of 8.8% a year
– Turkey is experiencing a growth in sun cream as cultural changes mean more people are willing to sunbathe in public
– In the UK chocolates and other cheap treats are proving popular – particularly individually wrapped branded sweets
– The US is seeing a growth in its soft drinks market, along with the alcohol market – which has grown strongly by 3.2% a year on average between 2009 – 2012

To download a copy of the report or to view video interviews with the authors please visit:

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