Mintel predicts over a third of consumer markets to see growth in 2009

March 24, 2009

Industry sectors set to benefit despite tough economic conditions have been revealed as Mintel announces updated market forecasts in light of recession.  Despite tough market conditions the research reveals that over a third (37%) of over 400 sectors monitored by Mintel are re-forecast to grow this year.
The findings come as part of a major re-forecasting project undertaken by market analysts Mintel, which takes into account the dramatic change in consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs over the past six months. As the recession continues to impact on most sectors of the UK economy, Mintel has re-forecast its reports accordingly to determine how sectors are really faring in these challenging economic times and provide latest insight and expert opinion to support business decision making.  
Eggs crack market
As consumers seek to economise their eating habits, Mintel predict eggs to go up 15% in value in 2009 due to their relatively cheap price, further awareness about their health benefits and as consumers seek to make meals from scratch to save money. It is the only food market to see double-digit growth forecast for 2009 and will also benefit from the phasing out of caged hens for more expensive free range and organic options. Re-forecasting also reveals a reinvigorated affinity for Italian food as this quick and convenient food sector is also predicted to grow in 2009. However, a “treating” culture is forecast to continue, with chocolate sales predicted to rise 7% in 2009 as a low cost way to soothe consumers as a comforting purchase.
Shoppers move online
Mintel forecasts online fashion to be the biggest winner of all segments analysed; set to grow 23% in 2009. However the market is expected to be less rosy for womenswear (down 2.3%) and menswear (down 1.2%) in general as consumers seek to economise. Designer clothing (down 3%) and the jeans market (down 2.4%) will also suffer as consumers buy less or switch to replacement rather than desirable purchases.
Richard Perks, director of retail research at Mintel said: “These figures confirm that affordability will take precedence over lifestyle in 2009 as we further feel the impact of the current economic climate. While the trend of trading down will have a negative effect for many consumer sectors, other sectors are benefiting as British consumers change direction and adapt their lifestyle choices accordingly. “
Change in Leisure habits
It seems that Brits are also set to change their leisure habits as the recession bites. Mintel forecasts show that expensive drinks and entry fees could drive the Nightclub sector down 4% in volume and family favourite theme parks down 4% – due in large part to their key audience being hardest hit by recession. However, sectors set to benefit from this change in focus include public leisure centres as consumers switch from higher priced gym memberships, cinemas as affordable escapism and football – as Mintel research shows that fans’ deep rooted loyalty will ride through any threat presented by the recession as the football industry is set for a predicted 1.6% rise in 2009. Mobiles capture digital camera market Mintel predicts digital cameras to be the technological sector most affected by the recession, falling 17% in value – due in part to necessitated discounting by retailers, a saturated market and the ongoing development of ever developing camera phones providing an all-in-one gadget. Mintel also predicts the Television market to fall by £77 million (3%) between 2008 and 2009 as a result of budgets reducing for such items as consumers trade down.
Mortgage lending stablilisationMintel forecasts suggest that over the course of 2009, gross new mortgage lending should only fall by over 6% – while a significant drop, a stabilisation after the sharp falls seen in 2008. While term insurance will see a predicted 12% drop, Mintel consumer research suggests many view both home and motor insurance as too important to scrimp on.Beauty moves indoors Consumers are also set to make changes when it comes to the beauty sector – with a shift from in-salon treatments to purchasing more affordable at-home salon alternatives predicted by Mintel. However, less frequent purchase items such as optical goods and electrical haircare are set to suffer as consumers economise and reduce the frequency of purchase. The re-forecasting research precedes the results from British Lifestyles, Mintel’s flagship report detailing consumer behaviour due in the coming month, where further information on lifestyles and attitudes will be analysed.

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