Christmas shoppers to leave it late this year

Christmas shopping will go down to the wire this year, as Mintel predicts more people will leave it late in order to bag a last-minute bargain, with a third (34%) of UK consumers saying they will wait for promotions/discounts before buying Christmas gifts. 

More demand concentrated in December would be consistent with the trend of recent years, with a reversal of the 2010 early purchasing ‘Christmas Creep’. We expect this trend to maintain for Christmas 2025. It challenges retailers not only to stand out but also create impactful moments post–Black Friday.

Mintel forecasts retail sales by value in November and December (both for in-store and online food and non-food) to hit £97.3bn. This represents an increase of 2.2% compared to last November and December when sales reached £95.3 billion.  

However, volume growth is expected to be weaker, with total sales by volume estimated to grow by only 1.5%. This compares to a 0.5% increase in 2024. Weaker volume growth, relative to value sales, reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly in food and drink, and uncertain consumer confidence about their financial position heading into 2026. 

Nick Carroll, Category Director of Mintel Retail Insights, said: 

“Consumers are cautious but looking forward to the Big Day. The Budget overshadowed retail demand in November, particularly for those highest earners who drove demand in 2024.  

“This uncertainty on how they will be impacted by the Budget has made consumers wait for deals, and value-for-money will be top of the agenda. We expect this to mean a bigger Black Friday, but also more consumers leaving their festive shopping late, and much opportunity for retailers in December.  More shoppers leaving it late will add challenges for online retailers; it will be critical to highlight cut-off points for ordering and offer flexible delivery and collection options. It should boost in-store demand, but it will create a need for retailers to be aware of crowding and clearer signposting in-store. Our research shows 63% of consumers prefer retailers to group gifts into one area in store.”